水库优化调度中的异轨同效问题 Equivalence of reservoir optimal operation.pdfVIP

第33卷第2期 水利水电科技进展 2013年3月 Vol.33No.2 AdvancesinScienceandTechnologyofWaterResources Mar. 2013 DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006 7647.2013.02.002 水库优化调度中的异轨同效问题 刘摇 攀,赵静飞,李立平,沈摇 艳 (武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉摇 430072) 摘要:针对确定性水库优化调度问题,引入近似最短路径方法,寻求优化调度的近似最优解,从而证 实“异轨同效冶现象存在的可能性。 借鉴流域水文模型的“异参同效冶研究成果,视隐随机调度问题 中的调度规则参数为具有概率分布特征的参数,视调度目标函数为似然函数,采用贝叶斯方法估计 最优调度轨迹的区间分布,开展水库调度的最优调度轨迹的等效性研究。 实例分析结果表明:进行 水库优化调度的“异轨同效冶研究,可以估计最优调度轨迹区间,从而将传统调度的单点决策转变 为区间决策,更符合调度操作实际情况。 关键词:水库优化调度;隐随机调度;异参同效;不确定性分析;近似最优解 中图分类号:TV6 + 97.1 1摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1006 7647(2013)02 0005 04 Equivalenceofreservoiroptimaloperation//LIUPan,ZHAOJingfei,LILiping,SHENYan(StateKeyLaboratoryof WaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineeringScience,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan430072, China) Abstract:Inorder to solve the problem of the reservoir optimal operation, the near鄄optimal solution of the reservoir operationwas obtained using the shortest path method. Based on the research of hydrological models, the interval distributionsandtheequivalencesofdifferentoperationtrackswereanalyzedusingtheBayesianmethodwhentheoperation ruleparameters of the implicit stochastic operation were probability distributions and the reservoir operation objective functionwas regarded as the likelihood function. The results show that the research on the equivalences of different operationtracksofthereservoiroperationcanbeusedtoobtaintheintervaldistributionsoftheoptimaloperationtracks. Basedontheintervaldistributions,thesinglepointdecisionmakingmethodcanbetransformedintotheintervaldecision makingmethod,whichisconsistentwiththepractice. Keywords:deterministicreservoiroperation;implicitstochasticoperation;theequivalencesofdifferentoperationtracks; uncertaintyanalysis;near鄄optimalsol