2013美赛获奖作品.doc

For office use only T1 ________________ T2 ________________ T3 ________________ T4 ________________ Team Control Number17696 Problem ChosenB For office use only F1 ________________ F2 ________________ F3 ________________ F4 ________________ 2013Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM/ICM) Summary Sheet Summary Fresh water is the limiting constraint for development in much of the world. Take China into consideration, the nation’s fresh water supplies can no longer quench its thirst. We build Model One and Model Two to predict the fresh water needed and available in 2025, from which we can get a visualized conclusion of water shortage in future China. Based on the conclusion we set up Model Three and Model Four to put forward strategies to solve the problem of saving water in different fields and increase the sources of fresh water. In order to find the best strategies, Model Five was set up to evaluate the different strategies based on the indexes of cost and water saving. Finally we came up the best strategy according to our models. The first model predicts the fresh water available in 2025 based on the assumption that the main sources of fresh water are stable in the short period. Model Two assumes that sweeping reforms will not be implemented in terms of industry, agriculture and society and predicts the amount of fresh water needed based on the usage of different fields and areas in order to make the prediction more convincing. Based on the thought of “strategic sourcing initiative”, the third model is built to cut the water expenditure. Regression Model and Analytic Hierarchy Process are employed to solve the problem of saving fresh water in industry, agriculture and domestic. Model Four is employed to solve the problem of increasing the source of fresh water through desalinization and sewage recycling. The evaluation of different strategies takes cost and goal into consideration. Principal Component Analysis is employed to evaluate the strategies. We divide