基于两次收敛模型的煤炭产业安全评价指标权重的确定.pdfVIP

国土与自然资源研究 ·38 · TERRITORY NATURAL RESOURCES STUDY 2011 No.6 文章编号：1003- 7853 （2011）06- 0038- 03 中图分类号：F307.11 文献标识码：A 基于两次收敛模型的煤炭产业安全评价指标权重的确定 1 1 2 李冬梅 ，王竹玲 ，刘红岩 （1.华北科技学院管理系，北京东燕郊 101601；2. 中国地质大学（北京）工程技术学院，北京 100083） 摘要：在对煤炭产业安全评价的过程中，指标权重的确定是决定评价结果是否科学的关键。本文利用三角可调模糊数调查专家意 见，有效避免了层次分析法一致性检验的问题；应用聚类分析原理对群体专家决策进行两次收敛：第一次收敛解决了异常值的问 题，尽可能降低了专家意见的随意性和主观性。第二次收敛利用相似系数作为权值对经筛选后的专家权重意见进行加权综合，从 而得到更加合理的综合权重。 关键词：煤炭产业安全；指标权重；两次收敛 Determination on Weight of Coal Industry Security Evaluation Index based on Twi-Convergence Model LI Dong-mei et al (North China Institute of Science and Technology, Yanjiao Beijing-East 101601 ，China) Abstract: During the process of appraisal of coal industry security, the ascertaining of the index weight is the key problem to decide whether the appraisal result is scientific. Triangular adjustable fuzzy number was adopted to investigate the experts suggestions in this paper, which effectively avoided AHPs problem of consistency check. The multi-experts decision was made convergence twice by means of the cluster analysis theory. The first convergence resolved the problems of abnormal value, which reduced the electivity and subjectivity of the experts suggestions. The second convergence adopted the similarity coefficient as weight to make comprehensive weighted of the selected experts suggestions, which would consequently obtain the more reasonable comprehensive weight. Key words: coal industry security; index weight; twi-convergence 煤炭产业安全体系涉及的因素多、不确定性大。在对其进 标，由菜单式多指标组成。 行评价的过程中，指标权重的确定具有举足轻重的地位。如何 2 基于三角可调模糊数的专家权重意见的模糊语义构建 科学、合理地确定指标的权重，直接关系到评价结果的科学性 专家在对权重的打分过程中，由于对权重的描述一般不可 和可靠性。目前，确定指标权重的方法很多，比较流行的如层次 能是一个确切的实数M，而是用