我国居民消费面板数据的分位数回归分析.docVIP

我国居民消费面板数据的分位数回归分析( 陈娟 叶阿忠 （福州大学 管理学院 福州 350002） 摘　要:本文构建了一个不确定环境开放经济条件下的消费函数模型，在模型中引入国际产品消费来表示开放经济，引入资本和汇率的随机微分方程代表不确定性，然后将规划求解得到的消费运动方程转化为可计量的方程，并用分位数回归的方法将城镇和农村消费群体分别分高、中、低三个层次（即分位数值取0.25，0.5，0.75），从区域，时间段和分位数三个角度分别估计不同消费群体的参数方程。结果表明：城镇居民收入的变动对消费的影响大于农村居民；在早期收入对高消费群体的拉动作用大于中、低消费群体，而在近几年则表现相反的趋势，即中、低消费群体的消费意愿强于高消费群体。政府支出对农村和中、西部地区的消费拉动作用大于城镇和东部地区。进口对刺激高消费群体的效果大于中、低消费群体，近年来进口对各地区、各消费水平的居民的国内消费表现为互补关系。 关键词:经济增长；开放经济；随机控制；分位数回归 Quantile Regression Analysis on the Panel Data of Chinese Resident Consumption Chen Juan Ye Azhong （School of Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350002） Abstract: This paper presents a open economy version of indeterminacy consumption function model, and it uses international product consumption to represent the open economy and stochastic differential equation of capital and exchange rate to represent uncertainty, and then turns the consumption movement equation into the measurable equation . It uses quantile regression method to analysis the function, and distinct the lever of consumption groups into high, middle and low, that means the quantiles are equal to 0.25, 0.5 and 0.75; and later estimates the parameter equations of different consumption groups from three aspects which include region, period, and quantile. It is shown that, first, it has greater impact on consumption when the urban resident’s income changes than the rural’s. In early time, the income has greater impact on high consumption group than other groups, however in present years, it has the contrary phenomenon. Second, government expenditure plays a greater driving role in rural area and central-western areas than urban area and eastern area. Finally, import has more stimulate affect to the low-consumption groups than high consumption groups, besides it turns to be the complementary relationship between import and domestic consumption. Key Words: economic growth; open economy; random control; quantile regression 引言 在冷战结束以后，世界各国在贸易条件、跨国投资以及一体化的国际金融市场等诸多方面发生了很大的变化。贸易