中国农业概论.docxVIP

The present situation and Prospect of?Chinese?grainChinese food security problem has been one of focus that the international community concerned about China. In 1994?Leicester - Brown?published a?famous paper?Who?Will?Feed?China, which made arelativelypessimistic forecastson the prospect of Chinese grain production and food security. He believes that as chinesegrain output reached a peak, the long-term decline may begin, Chinese grain production in 2030 is likely to fall by at least nearly one-fifth, or down 0.5% annually;in the future China will has a huge demand for food which will sharply pushed up world food prices, ?the lack of food will become a worldwide. This article?has caused?a great disturbance?in the global scope and?has been highly concerned by?academia,?society and?governments. Prediction of Leicester?-?Mr. Brown?though?not necessarily accurate,?but has an important warning?value?for?China?strengthen?food security?.?Published a few years later, as the successors of the new century, we review the recent years the change of food production and food security situation in China, objectively evaluate chinese current situation and prospects of food security, it is very necessary.（A）The basic?situation of?Chinese?grain1.Land area and cultivated land areaChinese land area is 9.6 million square kilometers, in countries around the world, after Russia and Canada, ranking the third.According to the ministry of land and resources of internal statistics, national farmland ownership of 1.827 billion acre.Chinese agricultural land ratio less than 59% of the total area of the land.Looking from cultivated land category, dryland area proportion bigger, accounted for 55.1%;Paddy field and irrigated land area of 26.0% and 18.9% respectively.From slope grade,zero to fifteen degrees proportion of arable land is the largest, accounted for 87.15%;fifteen to twenty-fifth degrees, more than 25 degrees of arable land, 9.2% and 3.3% respectively2. ?population situationAccording t