NASA无人任务交会评估风险分析体系和方法.docVIP

NASA无人任务交会评估风险分析体系和方法 郑爱武 胡松杰 刘也 航天飞行动力学技术重点实验室 北京航天飞行控制中心 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 交会评估风险分析 (CARA) 是最近十年空间碎片碰撞规避重点研究的问题, CARA水平的提高不仅可以减缓航天器的碰撞风险, 而且可以降低虚警率, 避免航天器不必要的规避机动而导致任务寿命减少, 因此越来越受到各个国家的重视。其中, NASA戈达德航天中心 (GSFC) 从2005年初就开始为NASA无人任务进行常规碰撞风险评估, 并在十多年的工程实践中积累了丰富的经验和教训, 非常值得借鉴。基于此, 对GSFC与CARA相关的组织和关键技术及其研究进展进行了全面地介绍。给出了CARA工程概念, 介绍了与CARA相关的组织及其职能、交会事件的筛选机制和报告机制, 给出了机动权衡空间解析公式及其用途。另外, 系统地阐述了NASA为量化风险、帮助任务指挥员进行风险减缓决策而引入的特殊的、即使没有所有的技术细节也很容易表达出风险水平的风险指数——F-值的计算方法, 并给出了典型的任务实施流程。结果可供从事碰撞预警和规避机动以及飞行任务控制和指挥的人员参考。 关键词： 交会评估风险分析; 碰撞概率; 机动权衡空间; 碰撞规避机动; 作者简介：郑爱武, 女, 博士, 高级工程师, 研究方向为空间碎片的碰撞规避和轨道设计。E-mail:awzheng@163.com 收稿日期：2017-02-27 基金：国家自然科学基金 System and Methodology of Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis of NASA Robotic Missions Zheng Aiwu HU Songjie LIU Ye Science and Technology on Aerospace Flight Dynamics Laboratory; Abstract： Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis ( CARA) has been the focus of the satellite conjunction study over the last decade. The improvement of CARA can not only mitigate the collision risks for the space assets, but also can reduce the false alarm rate, thus avoiding the potenun necessary and risky collision avoidance maneuver which may lead to the reduction of mission life. Therefore, more and more attention has been paid to CARA by space agencies all over the world. Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC) of NASA has been performing the routine conjunction risk assessment for various robotic missions since January 2005, and has accumulated considerable experience and lessons through operational practice which is of significant reference value for China. In this paper, a comprehensive survey on organizations and key technology associated with CARA in GSFC was conducted. The operation concept of CARA was described. The organization and its responsibilities, the screening and reporting mechanism of the conjunction events were introduced. The analytical expression and the us