河道溢堤机率评估模式之研究EXCEL之应用.PDFVIP

台灣公共工程學刊 第七卷 第一期（二○一三年） 1 Journal of the Taiwan Society of Public Works, Vol. 7, No.1, pp.1~9, 2013 河道溢堤機率評估模式之研究─EXCEL 之應用 1 2 3 紀雲曜 謝正倫 康富智 摘 要 氣候變遷下導致區域降雨的變異增加，造成河渠的溢堤機率增大 ，因此，溢堤機率評估為目 前國土規畫及防災重要的課題之一 。本文基於Hasofer Lind 可靠度理論，應用EXCEL 工作表中 「規劃求解」工具，建立河道溢堤機率評估模式，並以曾文溪流域斷面為案例，說明本文方法之 程序及可行性。由案例分析結果 ，顯示本文方法正確可行，且當降雨量平均值及變異增加時，溢 堤機率亦隨之增大，堤防高與溢堤機率間具一定形式的關係函數式 ，可提供防洪設施規劃設計及 決策之參考。 關鍵字：溢堤、機率、堤防、變異 A PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF OVERBANK IN FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEM BY THE EXCEL SOFTWARE Yun-Yao Chi1 Chjeng-Lun Shieh2 Fu-Chih Kang3 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University 2Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University 3Seventh River Management Office, Water Resource Agency, Taiwan ABSTRACT This paper aims to develop a probability analysis model of overbank in flood control system by the “solver tool” in EXCEL program. The proposed model, using Zengwun River as an example, is based on the Hasofer-Lind’s analysis of second moment reliability index method. In order to consider the uncertainty of hydrologic and geomorphic factors, we calculated the failure probability by overbank for flood control facility to quantify risk. However, we provide reference to assist decision making and planning of flood control facility by quantify the