硕士论文：基于风险因子分析的软件项目管理与模型（终稿）.doc

南京大学硕士论文 PAGE  PAGE 59 基于风险因子分析的软件项目管理模型 A Software Project Management Model Based on Risk Factor Analysis 张宏书 指导老师：金志权、邵栋 摘要 软件项目开发过程中存在着大量不确定事件，这给项目的成功带来了风险。能否在规定的时间内交付软件产品，与项目进度计划是否合理、项目风险管理活动是否有效有很大的关系。这需要综合考虑软件项目进度计划与软件项目风险管理计划，提供工具用以标识、分析和管理软件项目风险，并在此基础上获得合理的软件项目进度计划。 本文提出了基于风险因子分析的软件项目管理模型。本文通过对文献著作的研究和某通讯公司软件项目的实际分析，标识出影响软件项目成功的20个风险因子，并根据其出现的比例，选择6个主要风险因子进行进一步地量化分析，分析它们各自对软件项??进度的影响，并使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法，模拟出所选择的风险因子对软件项目进度的总体影响，该影响以风险图的方式给出。同时，利用模型中识别出的主要风险因子，标识软件项目风险；综合考虑风险因子的潜在影响和项目进度的要求，制定出软件项目风险管理计划和合理的软件项目进度计划。 本文实现了基于风险因子分析的软件项目管理模型，并对模型本身进行了正确性验证，也在软件项目组进行了符合项目经理需要的确认。结果显示，该模型能够帮助项目经理制定风险管理计划和合理的进度计划。 关键词：风险因子；模型；风险管理计划；进度计划。 ABSTRACT Many uncertainties are existed in software development process, and they give rise to risk of project success. Whether the project can deliver the product to the customer in time is much dependent on its estimated schedule plan and risk management plan. It is required to integrate software project schedule plan and software project risk management plan, and to offer tools for identifying, assessing, and managing the project risk, and to obtain a reasonable project schedule plan based on risk analysis. This paper has produced a software project management model based on risk factor analysis. Based on study of literatures and actual software projects developed in recent years of a famous communication company, twenty risk factors that affect software project success are identified. The six main risk factors are selected and further quantitative analysis of their effects to project schedule is made. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the total effects to project schedule, and the result is described as a risk graph. The project can identify project risk based on selected risk factors. By considering the potential effects of risk factors and the project schedule requirement, software risk plan and a reasonable software schedule plan can be made. A software project management model has developed in this paper. Model ver