巴克莱资本房地产行业深度研究报告.doc

巴克莱资本房地产行业深度研究报告 EQUITY RESEARCH 23 November 2010INITIATING COVERAGE HONG KONG PROPERTY DEVELOPERS Hong Kong Property Developers 1-POSITIVE Initiation of coverage: Bubble wrap from N/A Positive 6#00aa00view on Hong Kong property developers: Although property prices are For a full list of our ratings, price targets and earnings in this report, please see table on already overvalued against long-term fundamentals, we expect them to overshoot; page 2 low supply, a government unwilling to deflate house prices, negative real mortgage rates and high levels of equity are all supportive of higher property prices, in our Hong Kong Property Investors #00aa00view. While all eight developers should benefit, our 1-Overweight picks – SHKP, Sino Andrew Lawrence Land and Kerry Properties – reflect our preference for shorter-duration land banks +852 290 33319 and the pre-selling of developments: ie, business models that capture the late-cycle andrew.lawrence@barcap4 returns, while managing the risks inherent in Hong Kong’s volatile property prices. Barclays Bank, Hong Kong PropeJonathan Hsu rty price momentum remains: Despite the government’s recent measures, +852 290 374732 negative mortgage rates, a belief in the renewed investment potential of housing and jonathan.hsu@barcap strong homebuyer confidence will likely allow property price momentum to run for Barclays Bank, Hong Kong another 18-24 months. We forecast residential prices will increase 10-15% in 2011 and 10-15% in 2012: today’s residential market is more comparable to 1994/95 than the Wendy Luo peak cycle years of 1996/97, in our #00aa00view. +852 290 34673 wendy.luo@barcap Look to capture late-cycle returns: While rising property prices are positive for all eight Barclays Bank, Hong Kong developers, our preference is for SHKP, Sino Land and Kerry, companies focused on pre- sales, with shorter-duration land banks and a focus on the cash-rich upper rungs of the housing ladder to capture the returns and manage th