经济聚焦.doc

经济聚焦 Economics focus 经济聚焦 Redefining recession 重新定义经济衰退 A new yardstick for measuring slumps is long overdue 衡量经济衰退的新标准迟到了。 THERE has been a nasty outbreak of R-worditis. Newspapersare full of stories about which of the big economies will be first to dip intorecession as a result of the credit crunch. The answer depends largely on whatyou mean by “recession”. Most economists assume that it implies a fall in realGDP. But this has created a lot of confusion: the standard definition ofrecession needs rethinking. 那些令人讨厌的老话题又开始了。报纸上充斥着很多这样的故事：谁将成为受信贷危机影响而第一个进入衰退的主要经济体。答案很大程度上取决于对”经济衰退”的定义。大部分经济学家认为衰退意味着实际GDP的下降。但是这又产生了很多混乱：经济衰退的标准需要重新思考一下了。 In the second quarter of this year, Americas GDP rose at a surprisingly robustannualised rate of 3.3%, while output in the euro area and Japan fell, and Britains was flat. Many economistsreckon that both Japanand the euro area could see a second quarter of decline in the three months toSeptember. This, according to a widely used rule of thumb, would put them inrecession, a fate which Americahas so far avoided. But on measures other than GDP, America has been the economiclaggard over the past year. 今年二季度，美国GDP按年率计算惊人地上涨了3.3%，而同期欧元区和日本则出现了下降，英国则与一季度持平。很多经济学家预计日本和欧元区在三季度将会出现下降。根据历史经验，这意味着日本和欧元区经济进入了衰退，而美国迄今为止避免了这种厄运。但是考察GDP以外的指标发现，在过去的几年中，美国经济则要落后于欧元区和日本。 The chart looks at several different ways to judge theseverity of the economic slowdown since the start of the credit crunch inAugust 2007. On GDP growth, Americahas outperformed Europe and Japan.Unemployment, however, tells a very different tale. Americas jobless rate hit 6.1% inAugust, up from 4.7% a year earlier, and within spitting distance of its peakof 6.3% during the previous recession after the dotcom bust. Other countrieshave so far published figures only for July, but their jobless rates havebarely moved over the past year: Japanshas risen by only 0.2%, the euro areas has fallen slightly (though in absoluteterms it is still a bit higher than Americas). Another yardstick, G