具有异质性扩散率的传染病模型分析.docVIP

具有异质性扩散率的传染病模型分析 李争光 刘茂省 中北大学理学院 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 为了刻画大尺度空间范围内的个体移动对疾病传播的影响, 主要研究了异质集合种群网络的传染病传播过程。由于城市之间存在规模以及交通发达程度等方面的异质性, 扩散率也存在一定的异质性。以城市作为节点, 建立了具有异质性扩散率的传染病动力学模型, 更加准确地刻画了网络结构以及人们的出行对疾病传播的影响。通过对系统进行定性及稳定性分析, 发现系统存在一个无病平衡点, 并得到了无病平衡点不稳定的阈值条件。当达到疾病爆发的阈值条件时, 系统存在唯一的地方病平衡点, 并且地方病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的。通过数值模拟验证了理论的正确性。研究表明, 增大扩散率能加快疾病的流行速度, 因此, 通过有效控制大城市的人口出行率可以在一定程度上控制疾病的爆发。 关键词： 传染病学; 集合种群; 异质性; 反应扩散方程; 扩散率; 稳定性; 作者简介：李争光 (1991—) , 女, 山东兰陵人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事传染病动力学方面的研究。 作者简介：刘茂省 副教授。E-mail:liumaoxing@126.com 收稿日期：2017-07-06 基金：山西省自然科学基金 (2015011009) Epidemic modeling analysis in metapopulation networks with heterogeneous diffusion rates LI Zhengguang LIU Maoxing School of Science, North University of China; Abstract： In order to describe the influence of individual movement in the large scale space on the spread of the disease, the propagation of infectious diseases on the heterogeneous meta population network is studied.Due to the difference of urban scale, the discrepancy of traffic conditions and so on, there is some heterogeneity in the diffusion rate.The epidemic dynamics model with heterogeneity reaction diffusion equation is established by taking the city as the node, which more accurately describes the impact of the internet structure and peoples travel on the spread of disease.By analyzing the qualitative and stability of the system, it is found that there is a disease-free equilibrium, and the epidemic threshold for the instability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained.When the epidemic threshold is reached, the system has a unique endemic equilibrium, which is always locally asymptotically stable.Finally, numerical simulations verify the correctness of the theory.Studies indicate that increasing the diffusion rates can speed up the spread of the disease.So, controlling the rate of population travel in large cities can control the outbreak of the disease to a certain extent. Keyword： ep