管理决策-decision+making.pptVIP

什么是决策 Decision making is the process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats by analyzing options and making determinations about specific org goals and course of action. 什么是决策 决策就是管理者通过分析组织目标和各种备选的行动方案，并做出最终决定以应对组织所面临的机遇和威胁的过程。 决策的特点 Decision making is difficult and challenging because of the uncertainty arising from changes occurring in the environment. It’s critical --such as managers at NASa decided to launch the Challenger space shuttle, resulted in 6 astronauts dead; It’s universal– in 4 functions 程序化决策的例子 Laws of Robotics. Issac Assimov Law One: A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm, unless this would violate a higher order law.机器人不得伤人，或任人受伤而袖手旁观 Law Two: A robot must obey orders given it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with a higher order law. 除非违背第一定律，机器人必须服从人的命令 Law Three: A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with a higher order law. 除非违背第一及第二定律，机器人必须保护自己 A robot may not injure humanity, or, through inaction, allow humanity to come to harm Steps in decision making process Recognize the need for a decision Generate alternatives Assess alternatives Choose among alternatives Implement the chosen alternative Learn from the feedback 评估备选方案的标准General criteria for evaluating possible courses of action: 合法性 legality, 合乎道德 ethicalness, 经济可行性economic feasibility, 实用性 practicality Taking them into consideration simultaneously, but still there is priority 头脑风暴 A Breakout Exercise You and your partners are trying to decide which kind of restaurant to open in a centrally located shopping center that has just been built in your city . The problem confronting you is that the city already has many restaurants that provide different kinds of food in all price range. You have the resources to open any type of restaurant. Your challenge is to decide which type is most likely to succeed. 头脑风暴 (续） 1。