农村劳动力跨区域流动对中国粮食供求区域均衡的影响效应精选.pdfVIP

2010 5 24 5( 125) 梅燕 (杭州电子科技大学 经贸学院, 杭州 310037) : CWARMEM : , , , ; , , , : CWARMEM ; ; : F304. 6 : A : 1001- 8409( 2010) 05- 0101- 06 E ffe c ts o f R ra l La bo r F low o n Ch ine s e G ra in S pp ly a nd D em a nd E q ilib r i m ME IYan ( Colleg e of E conom ics, H angzhou D ianz i Un iv ersity, H angzhou 310037) Abstra ct: The effects of three kinds ofpossible r ral labor flow between different provinces on Chinese grain s p- ply and dem and eq ilibrim are analyzed by CWARMEM model. The res lt shows that: as the disparity of Chinese regional econom ic developm ent becom es more and more significant, partic larly in econom ically developed and ma in grain cons m ption areas s ch as G angdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing and other provinces, grain pro- d ction and dem and gaps w ill f rther increase. D e to contin o s o tflow of yo ng labor force in r ral areas of many pivotal grain prod ction areas, both cons mption pattern in the inflow region and prod ction pattern in the o tflow region are affected. Th s, in investigating the reg ional balance of grain s pply and demand, the factor of cross- reg ional flow of Chinas r ral labors needs to be taken into acco nt. K ey w ords: CWARMEM Model; r ral labor flow; balance of grain s pply and dem and 1 , , , , , [ 1] , , :