中国经济新常态与宏观调控政策取向_余斌.pdfVIP

MACROECONOMY宏观经济 中国经济新常态与宏观调控政策取向 The“New Normal ”of China ’s Economy and Macroeconomic Policy Orien- tation 余 斌 吴振宇 内容提要 从后发国家追赶进程的长周期视角看，我国经济增长进入“新常态”实质是追赶进程进入新阶段。 客 观、准确地认识“新常态”，需把握好增量和总量变化的关系、潜在增速和实际增速的关系、历史规律和现实创新 的关系。 现阶段，我国经济增速已落入中高速的范围，结构也正发生积极变化，但经济运行仍处于向新阶段转换 的时期。确保向“新常态”顺利过渡是现阶段宏观调控的重点任务。 “新常态”下我国经济发展面临多重风险和挑 战，也面临着新的机遇。 在此情境下，宏观调控的整体思路需要根据情况的变化作出调整：增长目标从速度型向 质量型转变；通过改革激发市场活力，培育增长动力；切实完善社会保障制度，为可持续增长创造条件。 关键词 新常态 宏观经济 宏观调控 全面深化改革 作者单位 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部 北京 100010 Yu Bin Wu Zhenyu Abstract: If one looks at the latecomer countries ’ catch-up process from a long-term perspective, one can find that ’ the observation that China s economic growth has entered into a new normality actually reflects the reality that ’ China s catching up process has entered a new phase. An objective and accurate understanding of this new normality requires a good grasp of the relations between incremental and total changes, potential and actual growth ’ rates, laws of historical development and innovation at the current times. In the current phase, China s growth rate is now within a medium-high range, the economic structure is experiencing positive changes, but the economy itself is still in transition toward a new era. Assuring a smooth transition to the new normality is now a key task of macro- ’ economic regulation. Under this new normality, China s economic development is facing multiple challenges but also new opportunities. In this context, the main scheme of macro -economic regulation needs to make adjustments according to these situational changes: transform the growth targets from speed -driven t