论房价对中国产出和通货膨胀率的影响-Core.PDF

第23 卷 第 10 期 中国土地科学 Vol.23 No.10 2009 年 10 月 China Land Science Oct.,2009 论房价对中国产出和通货膨胀率的影响 严金海 （厦门大学公共事务学院，福建厦门361005） 摘要：研究目的：运用IS — LM 模型和总供求模型分析住房价格对产出和通货膨胀率的影响机制，并应用中国的数据进 行计量检验。研究方法：理论— 实证分析。研究结果：（1）住房价格对产出缺口的影响是显著的，影响大小为0.76 ；（2）住 房价格的快速上涨易导致投资主导型的经济出现过热，并加剧经济结构的失衡；（3）住房价格与通货膨胀率互为Granger 因，房价的上涨在短期刺激经济增长的同时，最终推动物价水平的上涨。研究结论：住房价格波动对中国宏观经济具有显 著影响，已经在货币政策传导机制中发挥作用，宏观经济政策应关注住房价格的波动，并采取适当措施来稳定住房价格， 降低房价波动对宏观经济的冲击。 关键词：土地经济；房价；IS — LM 模型；产出；通货膨胀率 中图分类号：F293.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001- 8158（2009）10- 0014- 06 Study on Impact of Housing Price on Output and Inflation Rate in China YAN Jin- hai （School of Public Affairs, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China） Abstract: The purposes of this paper are firstly to analyze the impact mechanism of housing price on output and inflation by using IS- LM model and AD- AS model, and secondly to execute an empirical study by using the actual data in China. Methods of theoretical and empirical analyses were employed. The results indicate that, （1）housing price has a significant impact on the output gap with the coefficient of 0.76; （2）the soaring housing price is easy to cause overheated investment- oriented economy and exacerbate the unbalance of economic structure; （3）there is a two- way Granger causality relationship between housing price and inflation. Increase of housing price gives rise to inflation eventually while it is promoting the growth of economy in short run. It is con