Accelerating Change-Developing Tomorrow′s Medical Toolkit英文课件.ppt

Accelerating Change-Developing Tomorrow′s Medical Toolkit英文课件.ppt

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Presentation Outline 1. Introduction 2. One Assumption 3. Two Processes of Change 4. Three Foresight Studies 5. Four Foresight Skills 6. Five Foresight Domains 7. Global Trends 8. Twenty Year Scenarios 9. Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit 10. Group Discussion 1. Introduction Seeing the Extraordinary Present “There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.” - Gail Carr Feldman Carpe Diem We Have Two Options: Future Shock or Future Shaping Acceleration Studies Foundation ASF (A) is a nonprofit community of 3,100 scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change. We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices. Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface. 2. One Assumption: An Accelerating, Infopomorphic Universe Systems Theory Systems Theorists Make Things Simple (sometimes too simple!) Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. — Albert Einstein From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED A U-Shaped Curve of Change The MESTI Universe Matter, Energy, Space, Time ? Information Increasingly Understood ? Poorly Known MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives accelerating change. Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Physical Driver: MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density Emergent Properties: Information Intelligence (World Models) Information Interdepence (Ethics) Information Immunity (Resiliency) Information Incompleteness (Search) An Interesting Speculation in Informati

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