Topics in Empirical Choice Models Lecture 2 Static State-dependence Models 营销战略专题.pptx

Topics in Empirical Choice ModelsLecture 2: Static State-dependence Models Hai CheEmpirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheWhat is state-dependence?A household’s prior purchase experiences with specific brands typically influence the household’s purchase propensities for the same brands in the future. In such cases, there is said to be structural state dependence in the household’s brand choices over time. Structural state dependence can be positive or negative, in which cases they are called inertia (Jeuland 1979) and variety seeking (McAlister 1982), respectively.Empirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheSources of state-dependenceEmpirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheFour sourcesLag choice (structural state-dependence, GL loyalty); Lag utility (habit persistence)Carryover effects of marketing activites (habit persistence); Habit persistence type 1 (temporal persistence in households’ utilities for brands for reasons unobservable to researchers)Habit persistence type 2 (temporal dependencies between a household’s successive brand choices that arise on account of multiple (unobserved) information signals received over time between purchases)Model SpecificationWhich can be derived from the following distributed lag model: Carry over effectStructural state-dependenceHabit persistence type-IEmpirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheModel SpecificationHabit persistence type-IIEmpirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheModel SpecificationThis ensures that rho is bound between -1 and 1. Empirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheLikelihood FunctionEmpirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheData and AnalysisEmpirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheKetchup category;1985-1987;Top 8 brands, which account for 87% of market shares;529 households, who made at least 7 purchases over the sample periodEstimated 7 different versions of the models Findings: Model Fit Empirical Models in Marketing, Hai CheThe structural state-dependence measure turns out to be much more predictive of observed brand choice outco