分布式发电系统不确定性分析.doc

毕业设计（论文） 学 院 辽宁科技大学成人教育学院 专 业 电气工程及其自动化 年 级 姓 名 指导教师 2010 年 6月 15 日 分布式发电系统不确定性分析 学生姓名 学院名称 辽宁科技大学成人教育学院 专 业 电气工程及其自动化 学 号 01 指导教师 摘 要 随着分布式电源在电力系统中所占比例的不断扩大，研究分布式发电对系统稳定运行的影响势在必行。然而分布式发电的有功出力受自然条件的影响很大，例如风力发电和太阳能发电，其出力随着风速和光强的变化而变化。 本文采用区间潮流计算方法解决分布式发电系统中的不确定性问题。重点给出在风力发电系统中，由于风速的不确定性，导致系统随机出力的变化。文中系统给出了风速变化曲线、风速概率分布模型以及描述风机风速—功率的曲线。通过对分布式发电系统随机出力的分析，从而得出母线系统电压的变化区间。 由于风速的随机波动性，风能的预测不会非常精确并有一定的误差。区间方法是处理不确定性问题的有效方法。它具有严密的理论基础，能够确保包含了在给定参数变动范围内的系统方程的所有解，而决不会漏落。可以用于分析风机出力不确定性对系统稳态运行的影响。As the proportion of distributed generation (DG) in power systems is increasing, it becomes necessary to study the influence of DG on the stable operation of systems. However, the active power output of DG depends a lot on natural conditions. For example in wind power generation and solar power generation, the active power output varies with the wind speed and light intensity. The interval power flow calculation method is used in this paper to solve the uncertain problems in distributed generation system. Emphasis is put on the variation of active power output resulted from the uncertainty of wind speed in wind power generation system. Wind power variation curve, wind power probability model, and wind speed-power curve are also introduced in this paper. The random active power output in distributed generation system is analyzed before the variation region of bus voltage is obtained. Because of the volatility of wind speed, the prediction of wind power cannot be very accurate without error. The interval method is an effective method to handle uncertain problems like this. It has rigid theoretical basis, which can assure the attainment of all solutions of the system equation within parameter variation region without omission. Thus the analysis of the impact of the uncertainty of active power output of wind power generator on the system stable operation can be achieve