高盛-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场策略观点：通胀死灰复燃与新兴市场“熔化”贸易.pdfVIP

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高盛-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场策略观点：通胀死灰复燃与新兴市场“熔化”贸易.pdf

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19 January 2018 | 4:36PM EST EM Strategy Views Reﬂation resurgence and the EM “melt-up” trade n With reﬂation back in focus is EM in danger of “melting-up”? Despite the Caesar Maasry +1(212)902-8763 | curve ﬂattening in the US, rates are rising and breakeven inﬂation is following caesar.maasry@ Goldman Sachs Co. LLC suit. Along with reﬂation comes the fear of assets in bull markets “melting-up”, Ron Gray which refers to valuations overshooting as the cycle matures, leading to a spike in +1(212)357-6762 | ron.gray@ Goldman Sachs Co. LLC prices before a reversal. However, we do not ﬁnd that this risk is relevant to the current EM run, as it has been driven largely by improving earnings and a broad-based acceleration in economic growth. N C. n EM equities owe strong performance to rising earnings, valuations have M O room to improve vs DM. Of the 34% rise in MSCI EM in 2017 22% is C . S attributable to local currency EPS growth, 5% to EMFX appreciation, and just 5% C C B to increases in valuations. The historical relationship between relative valuations C I @ of DM cyclicals vs defensives and EM vs DM has broken down recently with a I