[农林牧渔]world agricultural supply and demand estimates in 2011.pdf

World Agricultural Supply ISSN: 1554-9089 and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Chief Economist Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE - 489 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board December 10, 2010 WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 10 million bushels higher this month reflecting lower domestic use. Projected food use is lowered 10 million bushels on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Census Bureau which indicate flour extraction rates that are higher than the long-term average for a third straight year. With historically high wheat prices, millers continue to get more flour out of each bushel of wheat. Total exports are unchanged, but small shifts among classes result in higher projected exports of Hard Red Spring and White wheat and lower projected exports of Hard Red Winter wheat and durum. The projected marketing-year average price received by producers is narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $5.30 to $5.70 per bushel. Global 2010/11 wheat supplies are projected 4.9 million tons higher this month reflecting an increase in EU-27 beginnings stocks with lower 2009/10 feed use and higher 2010/11 production in Australia, Pakistan, Canada, Brazil, and Ukraine. Production for Australia is raised 1.5 million tons as higher reported yields in eastern Australia continue to boost production prospects. Recent, heavy rains in many of these same areas, however, have dampened production prospects and reduced wheat quality. Official government statistics for Pakistan and Canada boost production 1.3 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Brazil production is raised 0.4 million tons as favorably dry harvest weather