银行业运行分析及展望.docVIP

银行业运行分析及展望 刘鹏周双 2017年以来，银行业整体运行良好，盈利能力恢复较快，但资产负债规模增速 显著冋落，商业银行浄息差大幅收窄，非利息收入占比创新高，不良贷款率超 去年但呈现企稳迹象。当前银行业主要面临的问题包括：屮小银行成本压力较大 影响其盈利能力，银行缺乏多样的投资和对冲风险的工具和手段，流动性风险 和信用风险值得警惕。展望来年，预计银行业资产质量将进一步好转，净利润增 速有望保持较高增长，表外盲目扩张将进一步被遏制，公司结构有望明显改善， 中间业务将进-步规范逐步向健康方向发展。建议未来要紧紧围绕十九大报告提 出的增强金融服务实体经济能力，守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线的要求， 加强和完善“双支柱”调控框架，继续加大力度引导银行业做好服务实体经济 工作，银行练好自身内功做好“调结构”和“提转速”，不断提高经营水平。 关键词： 银行业;双支柱调控桐架;服务实体经济;金融风险; 刘鹏，经济学，国家信息屮心经济预测部财政与金融研究室副研 宄员，研宄方向:金融风险与监管、货币政策等。 作者，经济学博士京农村商业银行博士后科作站、中国社会 科学院金融研宄所傅士后流动站联合培养博士后，研宄：宏观金融、商业银 行风险管理。 基金：国家社科基金重大项FI (15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测 研宄，负责人:陈磊 Banking Operation Analysis and Outlook LIU Peng ZHOU Shuang State Information Center of P. R. China; Beijing Rural Commercial Bank; Abstract： Since 2017，the banking industry as a whole has been operating well and its profitability has recovered rapidly. However, the growth rate of assets and liabilities has dropped significantly. The net interest margin of commercial banks has narrowed sharply. The proportion of non-interest income has hit a record high. The non-performing loan ratio surpassed that of last year，but showing signs of stabilization. At present, the major problems faced by the banking sector include the following: small and medium-sized banks will have greater cost pressure on their profitability; banks lack diversified investment and hedging instruments; and liquidity and credit risk should be observed. Looking to the coming year, the asset quality of the banking sector is expected to improve. The growth of net profit is expected to maintain a relatively high growth. The blind expansion of off-balance sheet will be further checked, and corporate governance structure is expected to be significantly improved. The intermediary business will further regulate, heading to a health development. It is suggested that we should focus on the requirements of the 19th National People’Congress， better serve economic entities and hold the bottom line of avoiding systemic financial risks, improving the du