0sycxsk第十_一讲凯恩斯理论与政府对经济的管理.doc

^ | You have to believe, there is a way. The ancients said: the kingdom of heaven is trying to enter. Only when the reluctant step by step to go to it s time, must be managed to get one step down, only have struggled to achieve it. -- Guo Ge Tech 第十一讲 凯恩斯理论与政府对经济的管理 这一讲的话题是政府对经济的管理，以及经济学家对凯恩斯经济学理论的不同看法。 在这一讲中我们要谈的话题是：The government as manager, 政府对经济的管理，以及经济学家对凯恩斯经济学理论的不同看法。 英国著名经济学家凯恩斯 John Maynard Keynes 在1936年出版了他划时代的巨著 The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money －“就业，利息和货币通论”，提出“有效需求不足”的理论思想，被经济学界看作是一场理论革命。他的理论是宏观经济学的经典，至今仍然影响着各国经济政策的制定和当代经济理论的发展。 下面我们要听一下美国哈佛大学经济学教授格雷格曼奇对凯恩斯的理论做的介绍。在收听他的谈话之前，我们先来熟悉一下他在谈话中使用的几个词汇： 1 The General Theory 通论，对凯恩斯著作“就业，利息和货币通论”的简称2 recession 衰退3 Great Depression 大萧条，指1929年到1930年代初期世界性严重经济衰退4 inadequate demand for goods and services 对商品和服务的需求不足 美国哈佛大学曼奇教授对凯恩斯理论做了这样的简单介绍： Keyness work essentially changed the way economists view the functioning of the economy. It really is traced to Keynes great book The General Theory, which in 1936 provided a new way for us to think about booms and recessions. 曼奇说，凯恩斯的研究基本上改变了经济学家有关经济运转的观念。这可以一直追溯到凯恩斯的伟大著作 “通论”。这本书在1936年为我们研究繁荣与衰退提供了新的方法。 Its important to keep in mind when he was writing, he was writing essentially in the midst of a Great Depression, a situation where roughly a quarter of the labour force was unemployed in the United States and other developed countries. 重要的是要记住他写作这本书的年代。他基本上是在大萧条期间进行的写作，而大萧条期间美国和其他发达国家都有大约四分之一的劳动力失业。 And this was an event that economists had a lot of trouble coming to grips with, trying to understand, trying to come up with policy recommedations to deal with. 许多经济学家绞尽脑汁来研究大萧条，试图弄清楚它的来龙去脉，试图找到对付大萧条的方法。 I think the central idea in Keyes general theory is that recessions, or depressions, result from inadequate demand for goods and services. Essentially people in governments and firms arent spending enough and thats why so many people are unemployed. 我认为凯恩斯通论的中心思想是：衰退或萧条是由对商品和服务的需求不足造成的。基本上是说，政府和公司花费得不够，因此有许多人失业。 And what Keyens theory was to do was basical