袁星-中国区域大尺度浅层地下水埋深估计方案.ppt

中国区域大尺度浅层地下水埋深估计方案 袁 星 谢正辉 梁妙玲 中国科学院大气物理研究所 xyuan@mail.iap.ac.cn 2006.09.24 Background Data Methodology Validation Application Summary * * (Alley et al., Science, 2002) More than 1.5 billion people worldwide and more than 50% of the population of the United States rely on groundwater for their primary source of drinking water (USGS). 地下水的过量开采会造成地下水位的大幅度下降，引起地面沉降。地下水位过高会对农作物生长不利，造成渍害。 Groundwater 气候条件、植被地形和人类活动的变化能引起地下水埋深时空分布的变化；反之，大尺度地下水埋深的变化，导致土壤湿度、地表径流和基流的改变，进一步影响下垫面的蒸散发和低层大气感热和潜热的分配，从而对气候产生影响。 估计浅层地下水埋深变化对水资源研究、陆面过程模拟、陆地生态系统及陆气相互作用的研究具有重要意义。 Transfer function-noise (TFN) models parameter regionalization method. Purpose Develop a statistical method to estimate the macro-scale depths to the shallow groundwater table from climate forcing for a region such as the continent of China. Scheme Data Meteorological Data (1961-2000) Interpolating station values from 740 meteorological stations in China. Soil Data Food and Agriculture Organization dataset (FAO). Groundwater National Ministry of Water Resources and Institute for Geo-Environmental Monitoring in China. Locations of the meteorological stations Locations of wells interpolated into 60×60 km2 grids MethodologyⅠ: Calibration TFN model Input: precipitation surplus (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration). The instantaneous evaporative demand (mm/s) is calculated following Jarvis and McNaughton (1986): A linear discrete stochastic system State equation Measurement equation If no observation taken at time t If there is an observation at time t Recursive application of the Kalman filter Running the Kalman filter for the calibration period with a parameter set resulting in the following objective function: Using SCE-UA method to minimize the objective function. Methodology Ⅱ: Parameter Transfer 1 Tropical climate 2 Dry, cold climate 3 Rainy, midlatitude climate 4 Continental climate with hot summer 5 Continental climate with cool summer 6 Cont