碳排放下的经济研究.docVIP

第届“杯”学生课外学术科技作品竞赛项目论文 我国农业碳排放与农业经济增长脱钩的研究 2013年月日 摘要 作者通过搜集整理1997年—2010年我国东中西部各省份的农用化肥、柴油、农药、农膜使用量以及农业灌溉面积、翻耕面积，测算出东中西部地区农业碳排放量的变化率，并通过与地区种植业总产值的变化率相比较，得出1年间东中西部地区农业碳排放与农业经济增长的脱钩。测算分析表明，199年—2010年东部地区的脱钩态势从扩张连接和扩张负脱钩转变至弱脱钩；中部地区的脱钩态势主要是扩张连接、扩张负脱钩与弱脱钩交替出现；西部地区则多为弱脱钩态势。的相应的 关键词：农业碳排放；脱钩；时空差异；影响因素  Abstract The author has collected and analyzed Chinas eastern, central and western regions of agricultural fertilizers, diesel fuel, pesticides, plastic sheeting usage, cultivated area and agricultural irrigation area of Chinas eastern, central and western region from 1997 to 2010. Then, the author estimated that the rate of change of the eastern, central and western regions of agricultural carbon emissions and compared with the rate of change of the output value of the three regions farming, drawn the decoupling circumstances of the eastern, central and western regions of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in 13 years. Calculated and analyzed results show that the eastern region of decoupling trend preforms expansion Connection and expansion negative decoupling transition to weak decoupling from 1998 to 2010; the main decoupling trend of the central region is the expansion connection the expansion connection, “the decoupling expansion of negative connection and weak decoupling appear alternately; western region is in “weak decoupling” trend. The reasons of regional decoupling trend and countermeasures have been described in the following text. The author identified the impact of decoupled form factors and analyzed them through SPSS. Finally, the author made appropriate policy recommendations. Key words: Agricultural carbon emissions, Decoupling elasticity, Temporal and spatial characteristics, Affecting factors  目 录 导言 5 （一）研究背景及目的 5 （二）概念界定 6 （三）文献综述 6 二、 数据、方法与框架 9 （一）研究区域的选择 9 （二）数据来源及计算 10 （三）分析方法 12 （四）分析框架 12 三、 结果 14 （一）东中西部农业碳排放量的比较分析 14 （二）东中西地区农业经济增长的比较分析 16 （三）东中西地区农业碳排放与农业经济增长脱钩的比较分析 17 四、 农业碳排放与农业经济增长脱钩的影响因素分析 21 （一） 影响因素的选择 21