行为金融学 讲座7第二部分.pdf

14.127 Lecture 7 Part 2 Crossroads of economics and cognitive science. Xavier Gabaix March 18, 2004 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Definitions (two system model) 3. Methods 4. Current research 5. Questions raised by neuroscience. 6. General modeling framework 1. Introduction • In an infinitely complex world, decision- makers need cognitive short-cuts. • Humans are good at finding them (i.e., we are good at simplifying the world) • Nobody has been able to build models (e.g., machines, algorithms) that gener­ ally predict the decisions that we make. • Only domain specific models (e.g., chess, law of small numbers) have been successful. The rational actor model is the “best” model proposed to date. • Precise theory (i.e., it makes quantitative predictions) • Applicable to all problems that can be expressed with explicit payoff functions • Comparative statics usually right Cognitive Science in Nutshell No single framework exists Many complementary and overlapping frameworks Rough survey of the cognitive science fields: • Psychology (esp. cognitive psychology): how do people process and react to stimuli/information? • Cognitive neuroscience: measuring and modeling brains • Computational intelligence (‘artificial intelligence’): 1. intelligent machines 2. computational modeling of human intelligence • Linguistics: study of language Each of these fields is less parsimonious than economics. E.g., psychology has no organizing principle or model Taken together, the cognitive sciences are spectacularly heterogeneous (relative to economics) 2. Definitions: • Neocortex: ration