国际金融市场管理Ch09ForecastingExchangeRates教学教材演示幻灯片.pptVIP

Part IIIExchange Rate Risk Management;;Chapter Objectives;MNCs need exchange rate forecasts for their: hedging decisions, short-term financing decisions, short-term investment decisions, capital budgeting decisions, long-term financing decisions, and earnings assessment.;Forecasting Techniques;Technical forecasting involves the use of historical data to predict future values. It includes statistical analysis and time series models. Speculators may find the models useful for predicting day-to-day movements. However, since they typically focus on the near future and rarely provide point/range estimates, they are of limited use to MNCs.;Fundamental forecasting is based on the fundamental relationships between economic variables and exchange rates. A forecast may arise simply from a subjective assessment of the factors that affect exchange rates. A forecast may be based on quantitative measurements (with the aid of regression models and sensitivity analysis) too.;Known relationships like the PPP can be used for the regression models. However, problems may arise. In the case of PPP: the timing of the impact of inflation on trade behavior is not known for sure, prices may be measured inaccurately, trade barriers may disrupt the trade patterns that should emerge, and other influential factors may exist. ;In general, fundamental forecasting is limited by : the uncertain timing of the impact of the factors, the need for forecasts for factors with instantaneous impact, the possibility that other relevant factors may be omitted from the model, and changes in the sensitivity of currency movements to each factor over time.;Market-based forecasting involves developing forecasts from market indicators. Usually, either the spot rate or the forward rate is used, since speculation should push the rates to the level that reflect the market expectation of the future exchange rate. ;Forecasting Services;One way to determine whether a forecasting service is valuable is to compare the a