[经管营销]I05660112洪国平论文.docVIP

摘 要 股票市场价格是广大投资者普遍关心的东西，投资者要想在瞬息万变的证券市场上把握先机获得良好的投资收益，必须客观地判断证劵价格波动的原因，准确把握证券价格波动的规律。因此，本文通过一些新的方法来判定股票价格的波动，探索股票定价的相关规律。 首先，我们对国内外企业价值评估的文献进行综述；随后，我们简单介绍了国内外比较流行的评估方法：零增长模型，固定增长模型，不定增长模型，资本资产定价模型，Black-Scholes模型。最后我们详细介绍了一种适合中国股市的回归模型。 多元统计分析是研究股票价格的一种新型方法。基本面因素、技术面因素、热点信息的转换和各种板块的创立，是通过复杂交互作用影响股价的波动的。我们利用统计分析方法，考察并确定与上市公司股价之间的基本关系因素，通过因子分析方法，把股票分成高成长股、大盘绩优股、业绩一般般股、绩差股，并一一建立股票定价的基本模型。然后就其来进行实证研究，判断出沪市股票定价的基本趋势，为投资者的科学投资提供参考。 关键词：股票投资；股票价值；股票定价的传统方法；多元统计回归模型 Abstract The price in the stock market is generally concerned by the majority of investors. In this rapidly changing stock market, if the investors want to grasp the earliest opportunity to obtain a good return, they must judge the reasons for price fluctuations objectively and grasp the law of price fluctuations accurately. Therefore, we use some new methods to determine the price of the stock, and explore the relevant laws of the stock pricing. First of all, we review literatures of assessing the value of domestic and foreign enterprises. Subsequently, we briefly introduce some assessment methods both popular at home and abroad: Zero growth model; Fixed-growth model; Uncertain growth model; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Black-Scholes model. Finally, we detail a regression model that suit to Chinas stock market. Multivariate statistical analysis is a new method to examine the stock price. The fluctuation of stock price was influenced by the complicated interaction of the following factors: basic factors, techniques, the changes of hot point information and the creation of all kinds of plates. By means of statistics analysis, we observe and decide the basic relationship with the stock price of listed company, through factor analysis, we divide the stocks into high-growth stocks, large blue-chip stocks, the performance of the general as stocks, shares of low performers .Then we establish the basic model of stock price one by one . Lastly we want to carry out empirical studies to determine the Shangh