st Quarter RIN Update AgEcon Search第四季更新搜索.pdfVIP

2015 1st Quarter RIN Update Nick Paulson Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois April 29, 2015 farmdoc daily (5):78 Recommended citation format: Paulson, N. “2015 1st Quarter RIN Update.” farmdoc daily (5):78, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 29, 2015. Permalink /2015/04/2015-1st-quarter-rin-update.html Today’s article provides the first quarterly update on Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for 2015 by looking at RIN generation activity based on available data through March from EPA’s EMTS. Uncertainty remains regarding final RFS compliance rules for 2014 and future years. This post examines two different 2014 compliance scenarios (proposed rule vs statutory mandate levels), and discusses the implications moving forward in terms of compliance in 2015. D4 RIN Generation Figure 1 plots monthly D4 RIN generation relative to implied monthly mandate needs (annual mandate divided by 12) using data from the EMTS from July 2010 through March 2015. For 2015, the mandate for biodiesel (D4 RINs) is assumed to be held at 1.28 billion gallons (1.92 billion RINs). Note that not even a proposed rule for 2015 has been announced yet by EPA, so this level could change. After peaking at over 300 million in December of 2014, generation of D4 RINs has fallen dramatically in 2015. Generation thus far in 2015 has been 143 million, 138 million, and 191 million RINs in January, February, and March, respectively. Extending 1st quarter generation rates through the end of the year implies total generation of just under 1.9 billion D4 RINs, falling just short of the 1.92 billion gallon leve