Testing Hypothesis with Single Molecules Bayesian Approach用单分子贝叶斯方法检验假设.pdfVIP

Testing Hypothesis with Single Molecules: Bayesian Approach Taras Plakhotnik School of Physical Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, St Lucia, QLD4072, Australia -What is the probability to meet a dinosaur in the streets of New York today? -This equals 50%. Either you meet him or you don’t. Author unknown Introduction to the Bayesian approach The quotation above sounds like a joke and is actually a joke. But does anyone know the correct answer? The bitter truth is that there is no the correct answer. Everyone can have his/her opinion about the requested probability. This opinion (estimate of the likelihood for the hypothesis of meeting a dinosaur in the streets of New York) will be based solely on personal beliefs, background, and experience. Although, no opinion prevails, most people will suggest a small probability for the meeting. But can they justify their choices for the actual number? And ye t, dealing with rare events is an essential part of risk assessment in insurance companies. Are you prepared to insure someone against meeting a dinosaur for the benefit of 100 billion dollars? What should be the premium? And before making any unreasonable commitment, think about the following. Crocodiles have shared this planet with dinosaurs for about 150 million years and they managed to survive the disaster event (whatever it was). What makes them so 1 different from the dinosaurs that it is so impossible to imagine a small dinosaur survived? And do not forge