Understanding Chinas Growth Past, Present, and Future文档.pdfVIP

Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 26, Number 4—Fall 2012—Pages 103–124 Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present, and Future Xiaodong Zhu hhe pace and scale of China’s economic transformation have no historicale pace and scale of China’s economic transformation have no historical pprecedent. In 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world.recedent. In 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world. TTTThe real per capita GDP in China was only one-fortieth of the U.S. levelhe real per capita GDP in China was only one-fortieth of the U.S. level aandnd one-tenthone-tenth thethe B Brazilianrazilian l level.evel. SinceSince then,then, China’sChina’s r realeal p perer capitacapita GDPGDP h hasas ggrown at an average rate exceeding 8 percent per year. As a result, China’s real perrown at an average rate exceeding 8 percent per year. As a result, China’s real per ccapita GDP is now almost one-iapita GDP is now almost one-i fth the U.S. level and at the same level as Brazil.fth the U.S. level and at the same level as Brazil. TThis rapid and sustained improvement in average living standard has occurred in ahis rapid and sustained improvement in average living standard has occurred in a ccountry with more than 20 percent of the world’s population so that China is nowountry with more than 20 percent of the world’s population so that China is now tthe second-largest economy in the world.he second-largest economy in the world. TTo set the stage in this paper, I will begin by discussing brielo set the stage in this paper, I will begin by discussing briel y China’s historicaly China’s historical ggrowth performance: that is, how China went from the world’s leading economicrowth performance: that is, how China went from the world’s leading economic ppower about 900 years ago to a situation in which it essentially missed the Indus-o