2013年贵金属展望报告.pdfVIP

ScotiaMocattaTM Precious Metals 2013 Forecast Silver November 2012 Executive Summary  Silver has had a less volatile year so far, compared with 2011. Prices have established support above $26/oz, but there appears to be resistance around the $37/oz area.  Investors’ confidence has returned this year, having been shaken during the post-April 2011 sell-off. ETF investors’ holdings are near all time highs and funds’ interest has returned.  Silver’s fundamentals remain bearish as net of investment, the market remains in a supply surplus. Investor sentiment therefore remains crucial.  We feel investors will continue to want to monetarise Silver as a means to preserve wealth and protect against currency debasement and financial risk.  We remain bullish for Gold and as such are bullish for Silver too. Introduction The Silver market has remained volatile in 2012, but the price range has been significantly narrower than in 2011 when there was a $23.75/oz range between the year’s high and low. So far in 2012, prices have traded within an $11.38/oz range. Since September 2011, the market has found support just above the $26/oz level, but there seems resistance around the $35/oz to $37/oz range. Given the market remains in a supply surplus and the economic climate is not that bullish for Silver demand, we are not surprised prices have struggled on the upside and looking forward into 2013, we do not think the fundamentals are set to improve. If it were not for Silver’s monetary attributes, we would be bearish for prices, but Silver has a history of being a metal used as money, just as Gold does. In the current economic and political climate where central banks are by default controlling much of the money flow in the ‘free market’, by their use of quantitative easing, it seems as though there has