商务风险管理指南：如何预防财务风险.pdf

14 Staying Financially Healthy ‘Does that mean you’re getting rid of jobs?’ says one reporter, sticking a microphone under Phil’s nose . Phil ignores him and goes on reading from a prepared statement. ‘The business has been impacted by a mix of soft demand for our services in a sluggish globalized economy plus competition in the sunrise economies.’ Phil always talks in management jargon . ‘Conditions have deteriorated more than expected,’ he went on. ‘People will understand that with the cost reductions we’re making, some of them will come through labour number reductions. And now I’m going to pass you over to my colleague who will talk you through some of the details.’ And with that he hands you the microphone, and disappears. The press surge forward expectantly . Financial Risk Made Simple Financial risk is basically about profitability. This in turn comes from the interaction between revenue and margins on the one hand, and costs and debt on the other. We show this in Figure 14.1. In a few cases, financial problems are caused by financial mismanagement, such as failure to manage debtors. But financial problems are mostly created through business risks that are caused by managers or staff in other departments. Thus the finance department has a strategic role to play in controlling others’ desire to spend and their unwillingness to cut costs. And line departments need to be aware of the impact their decisions can have on the future of the organization. We start this chapter by looking at the external environment as it affects the organization’s finances – the economic cycle. This affects most kinds of organizations, even government bodies, because purse strings get tightened in a recession and are loosened when the economy is growing. In Chapter 20, on Marketing, we also look at some other macro economic factors. Managing the Economic Cycle Whenever we think we have the business under control, along comes something unex