银行行业：宽松的货币政策预计将抬升估值，维持“跑赢大市”评级.pdfVIP

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银行行业：宽松的货币政策预计将抬升估值，维持“跑赢大市”评级.pdf

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Accommodative Monetary Policy Expected to Enhance Valuations, Maintain “Outperform” In 2016, we expect the growth of NPL ratios will slow down, leading to slowdown in the growth of impairment losses. Meanwhile, we expect the banks to continue to strengthen cost control thereby increasing net profit. Therefore, although the launch of deposit insurance will increase the banks ’ costs, we expect the cost-to-income ratio will still continue to decline in 2016. Sector Performance As the growth of impairment losses is expected to slow down and the cost-to-income ratio is projected to continue to decline in 2016, we expect 25.0% the growth of the banking sector ’s net profit in 2016 to be higher than 20.0% that in 2015. We expect the banking sector’s YoY growth of net profit in 2015, 15.0% 2016 and 2017 to be 2.0%, 3.9% and 4.7%, respectively. 10.0% 5.0% As of 14 Dec. 2015, the 2016 consensus weighted average PER and PBR of 0.0% the mainland listed banks are 4.7 and 0.7, respectively. The current -5.0% valuations are still low. In the future, we expect the following factors to support