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* * * * * * * * Psychological Accounting Whether an outcome is framed in terms of the direct consequences of an act or whether an outcome is evaluated with respect to a previous balance? Example: Price to see a play is $10. As you enter theatre, you realize you’ve lost a $10 bill. Would you still pay $10 for a ticket to the play? (88% said yes) Same situation, but this time you’ve lost your $10 ticket (which you’ve already paid for and can’t replace). Would you pay $10 for another ticket? (only 46% said yes!) Most respondents apparently added the cost of a second ticket to the cost of the original ticket—view $20 as excessive Conclusion Question wording can significantly affect how people respond. As a researcher must consider how respondents’ answers might have changed based on all of the previous factors. Descriptive Models of Decision Making St. Petersburg Paradox led to Expected Utility Theory Problems such as Allais Paradox led to alternatives Prospect theory a descriptive model is now widely accepted and applicable Utility Theory “St. Petersburg Paradox” ---(Nicolas Bernoulli ) An unbiased coin is tossed until it lands on Tails, and at the end of the game you are paid ($2.00)K Tosses until Tails: 1 2 3 4 5 … K Payoff in Dollars : 2 4 8 16 32…2K How much money would you like to pay for this game? Expected Utility Theory Why the “Paradox”? (INFINITE) Expected Utility Theory Daniel Bernoulli Nicolas’ cousin solved : “Utility” or value declines with amount won Utility Theory A gain of one thousand ducats is more significant to a pauper than to a rich man! Though the same amount! The expected utility of the St.Petersburg game was not infinite after all! Daniel Bernoulli Expected Utility Theory Developed by von Neumann Morganstern (1947) Classical utility theory was not intended to describe how people actually behave. Normative theory of behavior: how would people behave if they follows certain requirements of rational decision making. Provide an