The Origin of Wealth - Global Systems Dynamics and …：财富全球系统动力学和起源….ppt

Modelling Economic Evolution Eric Beinhocker McKinsey Global Institute EC Workshop on the Development of Agent Based Models for the Global Economy and Its Markets Brussels, 1 October, 2010 Today’s discussion Today’s discussion Fact no. 1 – discontinuous economic growth Fact no. 2 – increased order and complexity Fact no. 3: evolutionary patterns in technology Fact no. 4: economies are physical systems subject to the laws of thermodynamics Fact no. 5 – no one is in charge Today’s discussion A paradigm shift Do we need evolution in agent-based models? Evolution as a form of computation Evolution is a search algorithm for ‘fit designs’ A generic model of evolution Evolution creates complexity from simplicity Applying a computational view to social systems Who designed the modern bicycle? The reality – evolution through ‘deductive-tinkering’ Technologies evolve Economic evolution occurs in three ‘design spaces’ Business plan evolution works at three levels What would economic evolution predict? Today’s discussion Should we include innovation processes in agent-based models? Options for modelling innovation Can we incorporate economic evolution in agent-based modelling? Remember . . . Copyright ? 2010 McKinsey Company, Inc. Facts – five empirical observations to be explained Proposal – economic change as evolutionary search through physical, social, and economic design spaces Implications for agent-based modelling Facts – five empirical observations to be explained Proposal – economic change as evolutionary search through physical, social, and economic design spaces Implications for agent-based modelling World GDP per capita, constant 1992 US$ Source: J. Bradford DeLong, U. Cal. Berkeley 2.5m BC to 2000 AD 15,000 BC to 2000 AD 1750 to 2000 102 SKU economy From . . . 1010 SKU economy To . . . Wal-Mart 100,000 SKUs Cable TV 200+ channels 275 breakfast cereals “Add successfully as many mail coaches as you please, you will never get a railway thereby”