毕业论文----我国居民消费结构与消费趋势模型分析_精品.doc

河北经贸大学毕业论文 我国居民消费结构与消费趋势模型分析 专业名称：数学与应用数学 班 级： 200302 学生姓名： 胡其立 指导教师： 赵秀恒 完成时间： 2007年5月  摘 要 近年来,我国宏观经济形势发生了重大变化,经济发展速度加快,居民收入稳定增加,在国家连续出台住房、教育、医疗等各项改革措施和实施“刺激消费、扩大内需、拉动经济增长”经济政策的影响下,全国居民的消费支出也强劲增长,消费结构发生了显著变化,消费结构不合理现象得到了一定程度的改善。为了进一步改善我国居民的消费结构,正确引导消费,提高我国居民的消费水平和生活质量,有必要对我国各省市居民的消费结构进行考察和研究,以期发现特点和规律。本文利用 2006 年《中国统计年鉴》提供的资料，对全国城乡居民人均消费水平、消费需求进行量化分析，从而为准确预测消费品市场变化提供依据,为科学地制定消费政策、正确地引导居民消费提供科学依据，为政府制定发展计划和长远规划提供参考。 本文主要利用因子分析方法，聚类分析方法，对全国31省市居民的消费水平进行了统计分析，从而得到了各地居民消费水平的一些特点和规律，有利于各市了解各自的弱点和优势，进一步改善和提高消费水平。并采用“双对数模型”对我国居民的消费结构进行了趋势分析,通过“聚类分析”对我国各地区居民消费结构之间的异同进行考察并作比较研究,总结出了我国居民消费呈现富裕型、娱乐教育文化服务类消费攀升的趋势特点。 关键词 消费结构；消费趋势；因子分析；聚类分析 ABSTRACT In recent years, major changes have taken place in Chinas macroeconomic situation, the rate of economic growth is accelerating, peoples income has increased steadily, in the state has introduced housing, education, health care and implementation of various reform measures, such as stimulating consumption, expanding domestic demand, spur economic growth, the economic policy under the influence of the countrys residents have strong consumer spending growth consumption structure has undergone significant changes in the consumption structure has been improved to a certain extent unreasonable. To further improve our peoples consumption structure and correctly guide consumption, the level of consumption and improve the quality of life of our residents. it is necessary for the consumption structure of Chinas provinces and municipalities to inspect and study the residents to discover the characteristics and laws. Using 2006 data provided by the China Statistical Yearbook, the nations per capita consumption level of urban and rural residents. Consumer demand for quantitative analysis in order to accurately predict changes in the consumer goods market to provide a basis for scientifically formulate policies on consumption. correctly guide