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Several questions 1. Who makes the decision when there will be a party? What’s tis decision named? How to make the decision as about the division of roles different people play at the party? What’s the purpose of jury system? Do you know anything about “Jury Theorem”? Jury system Make more people who have the right to know judge right and wrong To establish a system to reduce the probability of the innocence being wrong convicted Jury Theorem The relative probability of a given group of individuals arriving at a correct decision Assume that people answer the same question , this question has two possible answers , a wrong one and a right one. Assume that the probability of the correct decision made by each voter is more than 50% , the jury theorem believes that the group correct rate will reach to more than 51%; and with the expansion of the group, the group’s correct rate will be close to 100%. That is, the larger the population size , the greater the possibility. Jury Theorem 很多人用“常理推断”认为,如果将判定一个人有罪的界限提高,那么错判的可能性就会越来越小。比如,如果陪审团有5名成员。如果考虑两个判定有罪的界限:(A)3票有罪通过 [这个又叫 simple majority] (B) 全票有罪才通过 (这个叫uninanimity rule)。 很多人用常理想一想,肯定认为第一,相比A,采用全票有罪通过的话,一个无罪的人被错判的几率肯定更小。第二,如果陪审员越多,那么无罪错判的几率会越小。 早在18世纪,孔多塞就已经提出了陪审团定理。最简单的来说,如果每个陪审员都得到一条关于嫌疑犯是否有罪的信息。这里假设每个人的信息别人都看不到 (Private Information),而且陪审员甲得到什么信息,不影响陪审员乙获得的信息 (statistical indenpendence)。只要满足下面这个条件: 信息的正确率高于50% 那么陪审员越多,则错判的几率越小。 Jury Theorem 假设大家一开始都认为嫌犯有罪的可能性是50%,如果要判其有罪,需要陪审员全票通过。然后,通过法庭辩论,研究事实,每个陪审员都能获得一条关于嫌犯是否有罪的信息。如果嫌疑犯本身有罪,那么每个陪审员的信息都有90%的几率是“有罪”,10%的几率是“无罪”。 如果嫌疑犯本身无罪,则倒过来,90%的几率每个陪审员获得的是“无罪”的信息,10%的几率是“有罪”。 假设这个嫌犯是无罪的,根据孔多塞的定理,陪审员越多,错判的可能越小。 比如说3个陪审员,那么在嫌犯无罪的前提下,三个人都获得“有罪”信息的可能是 0.1*0.1*0.1=0.1% 。 如果有5个陪审员,5人都获得“有罪”信息的可能是 0.1^5= 十万分之一。 所以陪审员越多,错判几率越小。 1) The most important part of his argument is that many animals may have evolved all the cognitive abilities necessary to use tools properly. Model 2: The most important idea of Chomsky is that language is much more than communication, and he argues t
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