贝叶斯正规化BP神经网络在我国医院床位预测中的应用.pdfVIP

( J Shanx i Med Univ) 2008 9 , 39 ( 9) 833 : 1007- 6611( 2008) 09- 0833- 03 BP 徐建伟 ( , 100050) : 目的 BP 方法 1990- 2006 , BP , 结果 0. 58% , 3. 62% , 1. 48% BP , , 结论 BP : BP ; ; : R195. 1 : A Application of Bayesianregularization BP neural network in the prediction of hospital beds XU Jianwei ( D iv ision of N CD Control and Community H ealth, Chinese Center f or Disease Control and Prevention, Beij ing 100050 , China) Abstract: Obj e tive T expl re the applicati n f Bayesianregularizati n BP neural netw rk f r predicting h spital beds. M ethods Acc rding t the data f h spital beds fr m 1990 t 2006, Bayesianregularizati n BP neural netw rk w as established. The f recast re sults w ere c mpared w ith exp nential sm thing and aut regressive m del. Results The relative err rs f results with t he three meth ds were 0. 58% , 3. 62% and 1. 48% in f recasting h spital beds, respectively . The f recasting result w ith Bayesianregulariza ti n BP neural netw rk was m re precise and effective than that with traditi nal predicti n meth ds. Con lusion Bayesianregu larizati n BP neural netw rk predict ive m del can be used t predict h spital beds. Key words: BP neural netw rk; Bayesianregularizati n; h spital beds , ynk , nk , , : , F = E W + ED (2) , E W , ED , , , , [ 1] , ( ) , , ; !, , , , , , BP , matlab7. 0 , BP , , D 1