ENSO changes due to heat flux adjustment in current and future ENSO的变化，由于热在当前和未来的流量调节.pptVIP

下载本文档

1
0
约3.34千字
约 20页
2018-04-15 发布于江西
举报
版权申诉

ENSO changes due to heat flux adjustment in current and future ENSO的变化，由于热在当前和未来的流量调节.ppt

1、原创力文档（book118）网站文档一经付费（服务费），不意味着购买了该文档的版权，仅供个人/单位学习、研究之用，不得用于商业用途，未经授权，严禁复制、发行、汇编、翻译或者网络传播等，侵权必究。。
2、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传，本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺！文档内容仅供研究参考，付费前请自行鉴别。如您付费，意味着您自己接受本站规则且自行承担风险，本站不退款、不进行额外附加服务；查看《如何避免下载的几个坑》。如果您已付费下载过本站文档，您可以点击这里二次下载。
3、如文档侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权、侵犯人身权等，请点击“版权申诉”（推荐），也可以打举报电话：400-050-0827(电话支持时间：9:00-18:30)。
4、该文档为VIP文档，如果想要下载，成为VIP会员后，下载免费。
5、成为VIP后，下载本文档将扣除1次下载权益。下载后，不支持退款、换文档。如有疑问请联系我们。
6、成为VIP后，您将拥有八大权益，权益包括：VIP文档下载权益、阅读免打扰、文档格式转换、高级专利检索、专属身份标志、高级客服、多端互通、版权登记。
7、VIP文档为合作方或网友上传，每下载1次，网站将根据用户上传文档的质量评分、类型等，对文档贡献者给予高额补贴、流量扶持。如果你也想贡献VIP文档。上传文档

ENSO changes due to heat flux adjustment in current and future ENSO的变化，由于热在当前和未来的流量调节.ppt

The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection and different ENSO regimes in a flux corrected future climate Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo Why flux adjust? Coupled GCMs generating mean climatologies more in line with observations are more likely to simulate the correct interannual variability of tropical precipitation (Sperber and Palmer, 1996). State of equatorial Pacific SSTs long regarded as an important predictor of the Asian summer monsoon (Charney and Shukla, 1981; many others). For a GCM to be used for seasonal prediction it should be able to simulate both these SSTs and the teleconnection between them and the monsoon. This depends on the Walker circulation being correctly represented. The Model HadCM3: Atmosphere: 3.75?x2.5? at L30 (better representation of intraseasonal tropical convection then L19 – Inness et al., 2001). Ocean: 1.25?x1.25?, 20 levels. 100 year integration. Why flux adjust? HadCM3 mean summer climate 3.75lon x 2.5lat, L30 configuration (Inness et al., 2001) HadCM3 mean summer climate Heat flux adjustments Flux adjustments devised by Inness et al. (2003) to give better representation of MJO. Annual cycle of FA applied to a 100 year coupled integration. Tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans only. Improvements to the mean state Improvements to the mean state ENSO properties in the current climate The effect of climate change The effect of climate change ENSO properties in future climate ENSO properties in future climate The teleconnection Summary and the future… Current climate: Flux adjustments, whilst having some drawbacks, can help correct mean state and have beneficial effect on monsoon predictability. Stronger teleconnection (and greater coupling); more realistic Walker circulation El Nino development. Flux adjustments highlight the danger in assuming a linear system, anomaly forecasting etc. Future climate: Combining increased greenhouse gases with flux correction may be pushing HadCM3 closer to some ‘bifurcation point’. An extreme monsoon m