The Binomial Distribution - Terry College of Business - University 二项分布-特里商学院-大学.pptVIP

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The Binomial Distribution - Terry College of Business - University 二项分布-特里商学院-大学.ppt

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The Binomial Distribution - Terry College of Business - University 二项分布-特里商学院-大学.ppt

A Discrete Probability Distribution:The Binomial Distribution MSIT 3000 Lecture 06 Objectives: Recognize situations in which it is appropriate to use a binomial distribution. Be able to use the binomial distribution to calculate probabilities. Be able to calculate mean, variance and standard deviation for a binomially distributed random variable. References: Text: 4.3 The Binomial Distribution Motivating Example When we considered the example with three coins and x was the number of heads, a question is often raised: How do you calculate probabilities if you have 100 coin flips instead of just 3? You recognize this as a “binomial” problem use the binomial probability distribution. Characteristics of a Binomial Random Variable: The experiment consist of n identical trials (a.k.a. Bernoulli trials). There are only two possible outcomes on each trial, S (success) F (failure). P(S) = p is constant. P(F) = q = 1-p. The trials are independent. The binomial random variable x is the number of successes (S) in n trials. Example: 3 heads in10 coin flips The number of flips: n=10. 3 successes: x=3 Example outcome: SFFSFFFFSF Probability(SFFSFFFFSF) = pqqpqqqqpq=p3q7= pxqn-x Questions: How many sample points are possible that have x successes out of n? What is the probability of each of these sample points? Answer to Q1: n choose x The number of ways to organize x successes out of N trials is written: Recall the definition of the factorial: y! = y*(y-1)*...*1 Then: Answer to Q2 Each sample point has the same probability of occurring because each trial is independent, and in a product, the order of the factors does not matter. E.g. Probability(SFFSFFFFSF) = pqqpqqqqpq=p3q7= pxqn-x Put the pieces together: There are ways of organizing 3 successes out of 10 trials, and each sample point has probability: Therefore the probability of getting 3 heads out of ten tries is: Very Small example: Number of heads out of three coins How many ways can we choose 2 heads?