Use and interpretation of products weather parameters and severe 产品的使用和气象参数和严重的解释.ppt

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Use and interpretation of products weather parameters and severe 产品的使用和气象参数和严重的解释.ppt

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Use and Interpretation of ECMWF Products (7-11 June 2004) Use and Interpretation of ECMWF Products (15-19 March 2004) Use and interpretation of products: weather parameters and severe weather. Jaime Fernández and Anna Ghelli Met’Ops Section December 2003: Marseille under a deluge December 1-4: Heavy rains hit SE-France. Marseille and surrounding areas are affected by flash floods due to very persistent and thundery rainfall. Accumulated prec in Marseille area MET-7 IR image 3/12/2003 Consistency in T511 and EPS Z wind (500hPa); θe 850 hPa Tropical air from ITCZ is engaged by the slow-moving trough. T511 m-range precipitation forecast Good forecast of unusual high amounts in the medium-range. 29/11/2003 T511 fc: 24h acc. Precipitation t+(90-114)h Dark blue 70mm Max: 180mm T511 precipitation verification The deterministic model got the right dimension of the precipitation amounts. Verification map. Base Date: 2003112912 t+(42-66)h VT: 2003120406 T511 area verification Extreme Forecast Index EPS precipitation probabilities Summary High predictability (good large scale consistency in both forecast systems). Unusual high amounts of precipitation forecasted in the medium-range. Local maxima slightly shifted in the forecast. EPS low probabilities building up in the forecast. December 2003: The rain in Spain Seville: 93 mm/48h Equivalent to December average rainfall. T511 medium-range forecast Cut-off low causing SW flow into the Guadalquivir river valley. T511 precipitation forecast T511’s forecast was on the low side but highlighted a maximum in the area (max. 77mm/48h). T511 area verification Extreme Forecast Index EPS precipitation probabilities EPS 2/12/2003 12 UTC t+(66-114) probabilities of more than 80mm/48h acc precipitation. EPS precipitation probabilities Lowering the threshold to 50mm/48h we get a different thing… Summary Clear signals from both forecast systems in the medium-range. EFI warning three days in advance and very low probabilities. Sudde