What is the difference Comparing parties’ electoral fortunes in.pptVIP

EPOP - September 2010 What is the difference?Comparing parties’ electoral fortunes in national general elections and European Parliament elections Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham) Eliyahu V. Sapir (University of Nottingham) Hermann Schmitt (University of Mannheim) EPOP Annual ConferenceUniversity of Essex, 10-12 September 2010 Election results level of turnout and the distribution of votes; and also comparison of these with previous elections political relevance of these comparisons: rising vote shares increase –ceteris paribus– the legitimacy of parties’ claims to (share of) government power, at least when a coalition is required Comparability For which elections can change in vote shares sensibly be assessed? (approximately) same electorate (approximately) same set of contestants (approximately) same purpose / rules of the game E.g.: general elections with each other second-order elections with general (first-order) elections EP elections Since 1979 EP elections have been compared with general elections (NEs) (antecedent as well as subsequent ones) Because the NE and EP electoral cycles are not in sync (exception Luxembourg) these comparisons occur at different times of the NE electoral cycle combining these comparisons across countries (and if possible repeatedly) provides a possibility to analyse government popularity cycles, and phenomena such as the ‘cost’ of governing (cf. Reif 1981; Marsh 2007) Potential pitfalls Comparing NE and EE results complicated by Turnout differences (differential effect?) Difference in ‘what is at stake?’ (effect on vote shares?) these two factors potentially undermine the usefulness of vote share comparisons between EEs and NEs as basis for further analyses Decomposition EE result = Previous NE result + + Effects of differential turnout + + Second-order effects + + (net) evolution of party preferences in first-order arena. or: DIFF(EE-NE) = TE + SOE + FOE We will estimate these components Em