Financial Planning and Forecasting Financial Statements财务规划和预测的财务报表.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * Beyond the Basic Planning Models External Funding Needed Once internally generated funds are exhausted, the firm looks to raise funds externally. See equation 19.6 and 19.7. Beyond the Basic Planning Models External Funding Needed First, holding dividend policy constant, the amount of EFN depends on the firm’s projected growth rate. Higher growth rate implies that the firm needs more new investments and therefore, more funds to have to be raised externally. Second, the firm’s dividend policy also affects EFN. Holding growth rate constant, the higher the firm’s payout ratio, the larger the amount of debt or equity financing needed. Go to exhibit 19.9 -19.11 How would increases in these items affect the EFN? Higher dividend payout ratio: Reduces funds available internally, increases EFN. (More…) Higher profit margin: Increases funds available internally, decreases EFN. Higher capital intensity ratio, A/S0: Increases asset requirements, increases EFN. Implications of EFN If EFN is positive, then you must secure additional financing. If EFN is negative, then you have more financing than is needed. Pay off debt. Buy back stock. Buy short-term investments. Summary: How different factors affect the EFN forecast. Excess capacity: lowers EFN. Economies of scale: leads to less-than-proportional asset increases. Lumpy assets: leads to large periodic EFN requirements, recurring excess capacity. Assets Sales 1,000 2,000 500 A/S changes if assets are lumpy. Generally will have excess capacity, but eventually a small ?S leads to a large ?A. 500 1,000 1,500 Lumpy Assets * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Financial Planning and Forecasting Pro-Forma Financial Statements CHAPTER 19 Some Bad Forecasts Everything that can be invented has been invented. --Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899. 640K ought to be enough for anybody. -- Bill Gates, 1981 Some Bad Forecasts But what ... is it good for? --Engineer a