WIDERWorkingPaper201734世界各国结构转型差异-unu-wider.PDFVIP

WIDER Working Paper 2017/34 世界各国结构转型差异 （1985-2015 ） 模式、原因和寓意 Adrian Wood* February 2017 摘要：在1985-2015 年期间，全球化加深了与要素禀赋相关的部门专门化模式。在技术 力量充足的发达国家，制造业变得更为技术密集化。在土地稀缺的东亚发展中国家， 尤其是中国，劳动密集型的制造业得到扩张。在土地充足的发展中地区，制造业却陷 入停滞甚至衰退；然而，在土地稀缺的南亚地区，制造业的发展受到低识字率、薄弱 基础设施的拖累。在大多数国家，服务部门在产出和就业中所占的比重增加，但主要 原因却并非全球化。未来数十年部门结构的变化受到许多不确定性的影响，但大体趋 势会继续由各国土地存量和技术供给之间的差异来塑造。 JEL classification: F11, F14, F63, O14, O19, O57 Acknowledgements: I am indebted to Joerg Mayer for valuable comments and suggestions, and for assistance with the export data. Nobuya Haraguchi, Charles Cheng, and Eveline Smeets generously let me use their employment data. Valuable comments were provided also by Tony Addison, Ingo Borchert, Doug Gollin, Nobuya Haraguchi, and participants in seminars at the University of Sussex, Peking University, and the Development Research Centre of the State Council of China. * 作者简介：Adrian Wood ，英国政府国际发展部前首席经济学家、牛津大学国际发展系教授。该文是Adrian Wood 教授 （adrian.wood@qeh.ox.ac.uk ）为WIDER （联合国大学发展经济学研究所）所写的报告。 This paper was prepared for the UNU-WIDER 30th Anniversary Conference on ‘Mapping the Future of Development Economics’, held 17– 19 September 2015 in Helsinki, Finland, as part of the UNU-WIDER project on Development policy and practices— competing paradigms and approaches’. Copyright © UNU-WIDER 2017 Information and requests: publications@ ISSN 1798-7237 The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research provides economic analysis and policy advice with the aim of promoting sustainable and equitable development. The Institute began operations in 1985 in Helsinki, Finland, as the first research and training centre of the United Nations University. Today it is a unique blend of think tank, research institute, and UN agency—providing a range of services from policy advice to governments as well as freely available original research. The Institute is funded through income from a