全球化力量分析()MICROTRENDS.ppt

SMALL FORCES? Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes, Mark Penn, NY: Hatchet Book Group, 2007, ISBN: 0-446-58096-1 While most futuristic gurus have looked to the large change agents, Penn takes an unusual approach. He looks at the world of small changes that may not even be noticed by most people. “…you can’t understand the world anymore only in terms of megatrends, or universal experiences.” (p. xx) In today’s splintered societies, you have to understand the intense identity groups, the microtrends. “Lately there has been something of a cottage industry of marketers and sociologists who will tell you the Ten or Fifteen Things You Must Know to get through the next two or five or ten years.” (p. xx) What? He slammed sociologists? These people who are trying to market themselves “…define and refine the world around them with ever cuter and cleverer names for the consumer, cultural, and personal changes going on in society.” (p. xx) Penn is critical of some of the macro change analysis with cute packaging. Penn finds new perspective in micro trends. His book identifies 75 categories of people which he says represent important microtrends. SAMPLES OF MICROTREND GROUPS Internet married Working retired Interracial families Old new dads Militant illegals Shy millionaires Uptown tattooed XXX men Americas home schooled Educated terrorists These are a sampling of the categories of people who are viewed by Penn as representing microtrends that are changing parts of the world. There are so many – 75 in the book but hundreds more – that only this sampling will be mentioned here. The major point is that Penn is turning the macro forces approach on its head. Penn accepts the importance of macro forces, but contends that another piece of reality explaining change in our world is micro forces. This is an interesting and sensible point. However, this idea seems to make understanding change even more difficult…we are called on to weave toget