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Econometric Demand Estimates for Broadband Wireless Applications Dr. R. Bruce Williamson* Dr. Jain-Shing Chen** *Worldwide Director, **Executive Director, Asia-Pacific bruce.williamson@ jainshing.chen@ Business Impact Research Group Taylor Nelson Sofres Telecoms Presented to the ICFC 2000 Seattle, Washington 27 September 2000 18th Annual Conference Broadband Wireless Background Problem is to transmit data reliably and quickly over radio spectrum licensed for common carrier voice and voice plus data for mobile users Standards and nominal transmission speeds depend in part on how much spectrum is available to licensee-operator how the data signal is compressed and divided up across the available spectrum, and sent to / from mobile users Analog implementations Circuit-Switch: up to 9.6 Kbps Digital implementations 2nd Generation: Modem circuit switched: 9.6 Kbps - 19.6 Kbps, 3-5 lines of 12-17 text characters Cellular Digital Packet Data (CDPD) : packet data service 14.4 Kbps in US implementations 2.5 Generation: GPRS and EDGE General Packet Radio Service (GPRS): maximum speed up to 128 Kbps EDGE: maximum speed up to 384 Kbps ISDN-like speeds in principle, 64 Kbps more likely 3rd Generation: UMTS Universal Mobile Telephone Service (UMTS) name for emerging standards Transmission speed ranges from 384 Kbps to 2 Mbps Broadband Wireless Background (continued) Progress along several paths continues DoCoMo iMode service is a unique W-CDMA implementation capable of 128 Kbps GPRS: server-side enhancements may produce effective bandwidths in the range of 170 Kbps for GSM mobile providers UMTS UMTS is European naming ; at least 10 technologies are under review W-CDMA and CDMA 2000 are two major standards Singapore testing a CDMA variant with 2Mbps mobile to fixed connection 3G standard set by World Administrative Radio Congress may use 230 MHz of bandwidth in the 2GHz range 3G to produce 2Mbps in stationary mo