港大英文课件Leadingindicatorsofcurrencycrises.pptVIP

Leading indicators of currency crises WONG Ka Fu 22 March 2000 Definition of a currency crisis 1. a “large” currency depreciation takes place Problem: this definition excludes situations where a currency was under substantial pressure but the authorities managed a successful defense by, among other measures, raising interest rates and/or intervening in the foreign exchange market. Definition of a currency crisis 2. As a result of (1) above, most researchers define currency crises by using indices that weight changes in the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and (if available) short-te