Millionaire Migration in California - Stanford University百万富翁的迁移在加利福尼亚-斯坦福大学.pdf

Millionaire Migration in California: The Impact of Top Tax Rates Charles Varner Cristobal Young Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality Department of Sociology, Princeton University Department of Sociology, Stanford University cvarner@ cristobal.young@ This paper is a joint collaboration; the order of authors is random and non-meaningful. This research was initiated at the request of Board of Equalization Member Betty Yee, who facilitated access to the Franchise Tax Board income tax data. We thank Allen Prohofsky, Sean Lawrence, Teri Lovell, and Loi Quan of the FTB Economics and Statistical Research Bureau for their assistance and data expertise. Ryan Leupp provided excellent research assistance. The responsibility for any errors or omissions rests with the authors. © 2012 by Charles Varner and Cristobal Young. All rights reserved. 1 Executive Summary California is one of eight states that have established a “millionaire tax” in recent years. The popular appeal of these taxes is that they raise revenue from those seen to have greater ability to pay a higher rate on the highest portion of their incomes. The concern, however, is that millionaire taxes may lead to millionaire migration, with potentially serious loss of revenues for the state. This study addresses the following key question: Do changes in California’s top income tax rates lead to changes in the migration of top incomes? There is limited existing evidence on the effect of top state tax rates. Available data sources such as the census or the IRS migration files do not provide data specific to people with top incomes. However, California income tax records provide a virtual census of millionaires, and show when million