A Mission-oriented Risk Assessment Methodology for Naval Vessel Fire Caused by Non-contact Explosions Using Bayesian Networks精品.pdfVIP

Available online at ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 62 ( 2013 ) 573 – 580 th The 9 Asia-Oceania Symposium on Fire Science and Technology A mission-oriented risk assessment methodology for naval vessel fire caused by non-contact explosions using Bayesian Networks a,b a, Jia Jia , Shouxiang Lu * aState Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China bBengbu Naval Petty Officer Academy, Bengbu 233012, China Abstract In order to understand the fire damages on warship caused by non-contact explosion, a mission-oriented risk assessment methodology was developed in this paper. Firstly, an eight-step flow chart was proposed to analyze the fire effect on a warship, and the main factors, which determined the fire consequences, were summarized. Then based on the specialist marking methods and statistical data, the fire damage on warship could be calculated by using Bayesian Networks, which is a nice tool to assess the risk for complicated system. Finally, the methodology was applied a hypothetical ship with five compartments. The results show that fire intensity mainly depends on the fuel load and the fire damage depends on the function occupancy rate. Moreover, the result of sensitivity analysis indicates that fire damage could be effectively reduced by some ways, such as decrease leakage caused by shock, shorten the response time of fire detection and so on. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-rev