design a new intelligence expert decision making using game theory and fuzzy ahp to risk management in design, construction, and operation of tunnel projects (case studies resalat tunnel)精品.pdf

Int J Adv Manuf Technol (2011) 53:789–798 DOI 10.1007/s00170-010-2852-7 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Design a new intelligence expert decision making using game theory and fuzzy AHP to risk management in design, construction, and operation of tunnel projects (case studies: Resalat tunnel) Alireza Aliahmadi & Seyed Jafar Sadjadi & Meisam Jafari-Eskandari Received: 7 June 2009 /Accepted: 20 July 2010 /Published online: 4 August 2010 # Springer-Verlag London Limited 2010 Abstract One of the traditional methods on managing risk 1 Introduction is taken using engineering decisions taken during the project development. In this paper, we propose a new Most of the real-world decision problems occur in a method for risk assessment of a tunnel project where there complex environment where conflicting systems of logic, are three main parameters called taskmaster, adviser, and uncertain, and imprecise knowledge need to be considered. contractor. The proposed model of this paper is built based To face such complexity, preference modeling needs the use on interactive framework of a game theory where, in of specific tools, techniques, and concepts to reveal the making decision, each player considers other possible risks available information with the appropriate granularity [ 1, choices. We implement three-person cooperative game 2]. There are many cases such as choice of alignment or theory combined with an interactive decision structural selection of construction methods where the risk manage- model of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process to perform a ment becomes vital in the early stages of a project [3]. The balance between actions and suitable cooperative strategy purpose of this paper is to present guidelines for managers for each player. The results